Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FIL prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-05-25 2.399585 2.552597 2.715067 2.901230 3.109656 3.337016 3.605434
2025-06-01 2.158626 2.364233 2.593753 2.871703 3.203032 3.590460 4.085716
2025-06-08 2.019204 2.255630 2.528811 2.872981 3.302857 3.833511 4.557822
2025-06-15 1.930023 2.190548 2.500166 2.903399 3.427835 4.107570 5.094616
2025-06-22 1.822899 2.092683 2.419906 2.856671 3.442456 4.231335 5.436396
2025-06-29 1.729938 2.004523 2.343203 2.804654 3.440022 4.324886 5.740250
2025-07-06 1.643405 1.918549 2.262559 2.739249 3.410164 4.371714 5.973454
2025-07-13 1.608643 1.895616 2.260600 2.777379 3.525780 4.640159 6.603434
2025-07-20 1.581474 1.880257 2.266540 2.825085 3.657250 4.945691 7.355206
2025-07-27 1.557788 1.867661 2.274547 2.874887 3.794573 5.275738 8.225573
2025-08-03 1.512756 1.824251 2.237729 2.856582 3.823836 5.427565 8.779652
2025-08-10 1.470922 1.783202 2.201849 2.836759 3.847893 5.571528 9.350322
2025-08-17 1.428025 1.739741 2.161524 2.809207 3.859358 5.698601 9.929803
2025-08-24 1.387937 1.698636 2.122684 2.781507 3.868098 5.821700 10.538301
2025-08-31 1.359454 1.672372 2.103646 2.782728 3.925106 6.043692 11.471353
2025-09-07 1.340976 1.659193 2.102625 2.811567 4.031730 6.379086 12.851908
2025-09-14 1.302943 1.617094 2.057444 2.767261 4.004247 6.433033 13.422368
2025-09-21 1.265666 1.574941 2.010637 2.717910 3.963819 6.454272 13.902286
2025-09-28 1.226849 1.529534 1.957504 2.655813 3.895707 6.407274 14.141594
2025-10-05 1.216420 1.524386 1.964186 2.692021 4.013122 6.791794 16.120856
2025-10-12 1.208809 1.522913 1.976120 2.737298 4.151574 7.250739 18.757372
2025-10-19 1.201918 1.522155 1.988931 2.784536 4.298235 7.760483 22.159485
2025-10-26 1.179709 1.498231 1.965063 2.767177 4.313349 7.936496 24.070969